Decoding the next "Black Swan" event or where the most pressure is building in the global financial plumbing.

1. The "AI Monetization" Cliff (The Modern Dot-Com)

The massive bull run of 2024–2025 was built on the promise of Artificial Intelligence. The risk for 2026 and beyond is not that the technology fails, but that the return on investment (ROI) fails to materialize for corporations.

The Scenario: If tech giants continue spending billions on chips and data centers but enterprise customers don't see a proportional increase in profit, a massive "valuation reset" occurs.

Why it’s dangerous: Because a large share of global indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) is concentrated in just a few magnificent tech stocks, a 30-40% correction in that sector would trigger a broad market liquidation, affecting pension funds and retail investors worldwide.

2. The "Private Credit" Shadow Banking Bubble

Since the 2008 crash, traditional banks have been heavily regulated. This pushed risk into Private Credit, unregulated, non-bank lending that has ballooned into a multitrillion-dollar industry.

• The Scenario: Unlike public markets, private credit is opaque. If interest rates remain "higher for longer" to fight stubborn inflation, many mid-sized companies may quietly default on these private loans.
  

• Why it’s dangerous: We don't know who is holding the bag. If a major private lender collapses, it could create a "contagion" effect where liquidity dries up overnight, similar to the Lehman Brothers moment, but in a sector where regulators have less visibility.